7.11 - Irrational Exuberance?

So Notre Dame is a co-favorite with Ohio State to win the national championship, Brady Quinn is the Heisman favorite and Notre Dame grads are getting shut out of the ticket lottery since no one can remember when.

High times for ND football.

And about time.

We should have these expectations... every year. Every year Notre Dame should have a shot at the title. But even now, it's only a shot and a long one.

If the 5-1 Vegas odds are accurate they mean that Notre Dame has a 17% chance of winning the whole enchilada (or nacho grande in this case.) Understand that number's influenced by heavy betting on the Irish fueled by hype and the lack of a dominant team. Even TSN's Tom Dienhart has climbed on the Weis wagon:

Brady Quinn is the best quarterback in the nation. … The schedule is friendly. … Charlie Weis is Einstein with a headset. There, I said it. I'm on board. Here's another Golden Dome-sized scoop of hype for your tailgate, Touchdown Jesus: ND will win the national title. I can't believe I just typed that. But it's true.

If you average all of the preseason football rags Notre Dame is the composite number one pick according to Phil Steele:

1. Notre Dame 115
Eight offensive starters, nine defensive starters return from Charlie Weis' 9-3 turnaround team. Pencil in QB Brady Quinn for Heisman. The Irish face most tough opponents at home, but Nov. 25 trip to Southern Cal is a big exception.

2. Ohio State 113
QB Troy Smith and WR Ted Ginn Jr. were stunning last year. Buckeyes won their last seven games as Smith took control and smeared Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Defense returns only two starters. Early trip to Texas on Sept. 9 will shape season.

(tie) 3. Southern Cal 104
The Trojans lose the last two Heisman winners, but, of four returning offensive starters, three are All-Americans. Defense should be better than last year's, which wasn't great. California and Notre Dame visit on back-to-back weeks in November.

(tie) 3. Texas 104
Vince Young is gone and the Longhorns don't have a quarterback who has taken a college snap. Running game and defense remain awesome. Tough schedule: Ohio State at home, Oklahoma in Dallas, and road trips to Nebraska and Texas Tech loom.

5. Oklahoma 102
RB Adrian Peterson is healed-up and nobody's better when he's well. No returning starters in OL, but solid sophomore QB Rhett Bomar and talented WRs return. Defense should be more Sooner-like with seven starters back. Sept. 16 game at Oregon could be a land mine, and don't forget Texas in Dallas on Oct. 7.

Which is nice.

It's also crap.

Preason prognosticators are generally clueless and as written previously here put an inordinate amount of focus on skill position players. Return a good QB and WR and Street and AthLindys Sporting Illustrated will rank your team high too -- especially if you're Notre Dame and can sell magazines.

The truth is that the odds are still long, probably longer than the real odds indicate. Notre Dame will likely be favored in all of its games (save SoCal,) but that doesn't tell the whole story. You have to be substantially better than your opponents to run the table, not marginally better. Two touchdowns better or more.

Anything less and chance, officiating, injuries or a bad Shark hair day could cost you the game and the title. If Notre Dame is only a slight favorite to win two games, the reality is that the Irish are actually a dog to win them both. Extrapolate that same principle out over 12 games and the odds diminish fast.

Last year I predicted a 4-2 start just based on per game probablity. Playing a similar game with this year's schedule, Notre Dame looks like a two loss team. I really don't know the lines of the games, but let's guess at this breakdown.

S 02 @ Georgia Tech -7
S 09 PENN STATE -3
S 16 MICHIGAN -3
S 23 @ Michigan St. -7
S 30 PURDUE -10
O 07 STANFORD -10
O 21 UCLA -7
O 28 @ Navy (Baltimore) -XXXXXI
N 04 NORTH CAROLINA -10
N 11 @ Air Force -14
N 18 ARMY -XXXXXI
N 25 @ Southern Cal +3

Being kind, the Irish are probably a 90 % favorite to beat Air Force, North Carolina, Stanford and Purdue. I'll put Army and Navy at 100%. Keeping with the kindness, how about an 80% favorite to beat Georgia Tech, MSU and UCLA, 65% to beat Penn State and the skunkbears and a 40% "favorite" to beat Southern Cal.

Those are probably generous, but given that genorosity it still equates to just an 7% chance of running the table to the BCS championship game with a likely 50% shot in the title game. That puts ND's undefeated national title hopes at 4% on the optimistic side - or 1/25.

What could work in Notre Dame's favor this year is parity and that a one loss team could get into the title game. Let's add a 40% bump for that possibility, putting the real odds ND can take home the title at 6%.

All guesswork at this point, but even given a huge margin of error, 5-1 odds look like good ones for Cramer to SELL! SELL! SELL!

Why so down, Rock?

Not down, just being realistic. Notre Dame's coming in as a favorite this year not because the Irish look so powerful, but because there's a vacuum of dominance. There are probably 15 teams with a shot at the title this year if the games roll their way and the Irish are going to have to catch a card on the river to make this gutshot straight draw. You actually stand a better shot of hitting the gut shot on the river and about the same as hitting a gut shot straight flush on the river.

While the focus is on the defense improving, I think we'll know very soon if this team will be a national championship team by focusing on the non-stars. Whenever a team makes a championship run, it's because the non-star players have elevated their games past their old peformance boundaries.

That's what the Patriots did year in year out. In my mind, the harbinger of a National Championship won't be the play of Quinn, but Santucci, not Abiamiri, but Frome and not Zibby, but Richardson.

Our stars will be expected to perform better than they have in the past, but for a team to beat tho' the odds, especially this Irish team, it has to see an elevation of play across the board. You'll know we have a great team when Richardson makes two clutch picks or Frome plants Booty's Booty into the South Central turf.

In my mind, Stams and Pritchett were as much the reason for the 1988 title run as Tony Rice.

Notre Dame needs the Stams (plural) of 2006/2007 to demand a different level of play from themselves if the fightin' are going to beat the odds. What's clear is that there's a title for the taking this year. As Grand Pap used to say, no one gives you the bone (unless they're giving you the bone,) you gotta fight for it.