If Weis Fails
Valuing Scheme "Potential" over Execution
Charlie calls good plays. They could almost all work when you look back at the film. But what Charlie seems to not see or acknowledge is that college kids have limitations on their ability to execute. They just don't have the time to practice to be able to carry out complex plays on the same level as pro players. So even though it's not a scheme issue to Charlie, it is a scheme issue. When something fails again and again and again, it's not a good call.Possibility (what the scheme can do) x Probability (offensive execution given the situation) = What you can expect out of this play
Weis seems focused on number one or isn't accurately gaging number two.
Those errors seem to be exacerbated by two other closely related issues.
Complicated Blocking Schemes
In his interview with Mike Frank of Irish Eyes Charlie talked about breakdowns not being a scheme issue and lamented that sometimes a player is supposed to block another player and he doesn't block the guy. Charlie, if it happens over and over again, it means something's wrong with the blocking scheme. I've been told our kids have to make to many reads at the line of scrimmage leading to mental mistakes. Also, constant pass blocking makes linemen passive. We had at least decent line talent in 2006 and Quinn looked like a tackling dummy. Our line problems started in 2006. Something needs to change.
Charlie Would Rather Pass
Passes, by nature, carry more execution risk. Charlie's pass happy. Even when we got our
running game going the past two years, Charlie would inexplicably call pass play that would fall incomplete. Last year there was a greater than 50/50 chance on any one play that a pass would result in sack or an incomplete, but Charlie kept passing almost ending Clausen's career before it started. It comes as no surprise to me that Charlie is good friends with Andy Reid who once stated he would never run if he didn't have to. This was my Yuengling fueled rant after the MSU game:End rant.The Definition of Insanity
***** Author's Note: the following was written after a gamewatch ******
is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Repeat a thousand times: we cannot protect the passer. No amount of nifty scheming is going to change this until we actually do the dirty work of protection.
The turning point in this game (and I yelled it loudly when it happened) was the first quarter with second and 5 from our own 13. We've just had a nice run for 5 yards up the gut. We've got forward momentum and good blocking. The only thing that can set us back at this point is a pass.
We call a drop-back pass. Michigan State is bringing the house.
Clausen is sacked on the 4 yard line.
Repeat: PASSING PLAYS GO BACKWARDS!
Draw is stuffed, we punt, Michigan State scores a touchdown.
The second defining moment was just a few series later.
ND is down 14-7, Aldridge powers it out for 5. Notre Dame then throws for a first down with Clausen barely getting it off in time. It's clear that we cannot protect the quarterback right now. It's then first and 10 from the 31... we call a play action action with hardly a nod to the fake the ball is stripped loose on the 13.
Even though it doesn't look like it, I think this is the game right here. We hold them to a field goal. We just don't have margin of error to give up field position like that. We needed a cushion and instead gave them the advantage WE KNEW they were going to have going into this game -- their pass rush against our passing game.
Our passing game goes backward, while our running game was chewing them up for almost 6 yards a carry! Clausen threw 20 times for a net gain of 7 yards after sacks and fumbled takeaways. We lose or gain no yards more than half the time and net a ridiculous .3 yards per attempt (including sacks.)
J. Aldridge 18 104 5.8 43 0 0 R. Hughes 6 35 5.8 18 1 0 A. Allen 3 13 4.3 9 0 0
It's not a crime that our passing game isn't there yet. There was simply no need to go there because the risk was just too high. We go backwards when we pass and Michigan State couldn't stop the run.
I'm frustrated because this should have been a W. Aldridge and Hughes should carry this team until we can get protection. Grimes made some great grabs, but he wouldn't have to make "great" grabs if he were 6'3". There is simply no plausible reason to be starting two wide receivers you can't even see. If they had game breaking speed, maybe. They don't. Kamara, Parris, Hord and Tate give us size and speed.
Why Charlie went to the passing game with Sharpley at the end is perplexing. We can't pass. There's no point.
We need to start the big receivers, run the ball and ditch the horizontal passing game except as a change-up. Everyone's prepared for it. And no need to go for it on 4th down especially at that point in the game.
We showed signs of a great running game that we need to ride. MSU couldn't deal with it.
There were a lot of positive signs today and I should note that new offensive lines usually gel by the 5th game.
But we could have been the one's gutting MSU in the second half.
Instead we were gutted again.
On the plus side we've got some strong receivers coming in and Clausen is perfect for Weis's scheme, so he may just "talent" his way out of this one. And while Charlie has turned over the game planning and presumably the playcalling, I don't see a scenario with a game on the line where he's not taking the lead. Haywood is completely unproven as a playcaller. If he were turning the playcalling over to Chow, that would make perfect sense. If you think about this (and this is scary) we now have a completely inexperienced offensive coordinator, a defensive coordinator with one year of experience and a special teams coach with little experience and a track record of under performance. This is Notre Dame Football?
Motivating With Negativity
Charlie would have to be dense to not see that constant negativity does not work with College players. It can work with a Quinn, but it has major limitations. Charlie doesn't have to go to charm school, but he should at least learn how positive motivation works and the only thing that it requires is for Charlie to try. Lou was negative too, but he knew when to lean in and lift a player up. What was so troubling about 2006 was watching so many good to great players just plain dog it on the field.
Lack of Special Teams Expertise
Charlie really said that Polian was the best choice to coach special teams? Either mindbogglingly stupid or insincere. You make the call. Polian is a great recruiter, but he was a disaster as a linebackers coach after being a disaster as a special teams coach in 2005.
The Attitude Game Decision
The other thing Charlie needs to dump is the "attitude" decision, the, "we're going to go for it on fourth down no matter how absurd the game situation" decision. It's okay to play with an attitude, it's okay to coach with an attitude, it's not okay to always, always, always make a decision based on an attitude. There's a nuance of decision making there that Weis is missing.
I've defended Weis and generally like him and how he's balance academics, recruited tirelessly and upheld Notre Dame traditions, but I don't defend without reservation.
If Charlie fails, my guess is that the post failure root cause analysis will map back to one of the issues above.
38 Comments:
I found the article interesting. However, I think that Charlie handing over the play calling could solve a lot of these things. I agree he should be more positive and I think this will come eventually as well. I'm generally optimistic and enjoyed the read.
I can't wait to be standing in the student's section for my first time next year!
Excellent post, I hope Charlie gets online and reads it himself. He says he doesn't read the papers or go online...my arse.
Why post this article now? What good does it do? What value does it add? What is the purpose, other than to show, once again, that ND fans are arrogant pricks that think they can coach better than the head football coach?
This is a very good synthesis of Charlie's problems. The thing that worries me the most is that the seeds for these problems were sown in 2006 and were allowed to fester throughout 2007 as well.
Our University shouldn't pay people millions of dollars to take 2 years to fix things.
Charlie gets one more chance to get it right, and by "right," I mean at a minimum 8-4 with no blowouts and continued stellar recruiting. ND hopes for more, and is entitled to more, but should expect this at a bare-minimuim-Charlie-doesn't-get-fired level of performance.
I used to be of the opinion that I'd be satisfied with 6-6 because, after all, 3-9 to 6-6 is a huge turnaround. But, then I think of the pain that last year caused.
Nope. "6-6 is not good enough."
Judging from the tenor of the last few Rock articles/comments, once again we're starting to get ourselves in a mental place to replace yet another coach. Tugging at the back of my mind is the failure of some pretty good coaches (on paper) over the past few DECADES to make a consistent impact on our program. Perhaps the real answer to failure is Our Lady's inability to take a chance on some lesser student athletes who can, consistently, make those blocks Charlie's referring to. Replacing yet another coach, now that sounds to me like the definition of insanity!
Lame. I won't deny that the article begins well and progresses with inarguably cogent points. It derails entirely with the afterthought that is "the attitude problem".
The most important step as a coach (a position, mind you, that is all of trainer, teacher, counsel, and cultural czar at least) is to reverse a culture of losing and establish some alternative in its place. Charlie's alternative is "the nastiness", the brash, gruff, we're-taking-what-we-want-get-the-hell-out-of-our-way, imposing and intimidating personna. But his words aren't enough for the team's buy-in, they have to live it to start being it. That includes playing with abandon, shoving the ball down their throats on 4th and 2, going for it in our end. Yes, decision-making is one of the lofty responsibilities of the coach and conservative approaches have their merit, but NEVER underestimate the psychological advantage of being known for nasty.
Anonymous, way to be gutless and not leave your name. Post on a U of M board and leave us alone.
Great article! A lot of the issues you reference are things that are obvious, so why hasn't Sir Charlie resolved them by now? It all starts with line play - offense and defense. Establish the run first, then that will open the passing game. Other teams can win with young talent - 9-3, or we need some major changes in 2008.
I agree that this was an excellent and interesting post, but I also have to wonder why did you wait until now to publish this post?
It is clearly in CW's hands. Another excellent recruiting class and changes in the coaching ranks and assignments should produce positive results. However, we know that only limited help will probably come our way from the most recent recruits as they need time to develop.
Is 8-4 a reasonable expectation with such a young team? I don't know the answer. I certainly don't believe that 6-6 is sufficent, but 7-5 with a bowl win would be a tremendous improvement.
What I believe will be important is the quality of the losses the Irish will experience. As others have noted, if we are blown off the field repeatedly or do not show improvement in special teams, defense, and offense, then the future of CW is definitely at risk.
Let's keep calm out there. CW started last season on the wrong foot with the wrong guy at QB and misspent 4 summer weeks preparing a game plan around that individual. When Jones didn't pan out, CW had the time limitations of College ball to contend with and started putting soft patches in with the limited time each week that he had. It was doomed to failure because it was a total change up. By the time he might have had success, the season was half over, and you know where we were then. Doom and gloom set in amongst the team, and no one was going to change that.
This year is definitely going to be better. We know who the QB is and he is the right guy for CW. We have the talent, and the coaching, and the head coach has decided to be head coach. We also have a better schedule, and many of the teams we are playing will be in the ND 2007 posture.
I will be surprised if we don't finish at least at 9-3.
Yet we should just walk out on the field and finish 9-3. Obviously you are not in agreement with this but many rose-colored-glass-eyed Irish fans are.
As your article points out we have way too many problems. #1 our coach is learning to be a head coach. I think he has a bunch of potential but like a lot of our players it hasn't been realized yet.
One advantage that I could see in Haywood taking over the reins of the offense (to whatever degree Weis lets him) is that the offense might become more execution-based and simpler, i.e., we might just actually invest the time and practice and patience for a running game to develop. Haywood has been around good running programs before and I hope he institutes a lot of that here.
Our reliance on surprise, sophistication, high faluting scheming is killing us. Our players are soft. We should be physically punishing at least 9 teams on our schedule every year but instead we act some lower level non BCS school trying to trick people.
ND used to be the default school for offensive linemen wanting to get to the pros but it's a shame now what we produce. And that is not an indictment of the players but the coaches here. Our line has gotten progressively worse since Holtz left. We are now I hope at the bottom of that trend and headed back up.
Interesting post, but you are just setting yourself up to say "I told you so". CW took over a failing program. He did a good job with decent talent in 05 and 06 and two BCS appearences, but not deep enough to dominate. He's had three excellent recruiting years to build this team and flush out the lesser talent. He's hard working and not afraid to make changes for the better. This will be the proving year as Charlies' flag ship class becomes Junior leaders.
Motivating With Negativity
Charlie would have to be dense to not see that constant negativity does not work with College players. It can work with a Quinn, but it has major limitations.
The continual descent into the quagmire of negativity by you and others in ndnation is really gettinig excessive. It appears that if you (and the others) found an ingot of gold at your doorstep you'd complain because it was too heavy.
Remember, current and future players read ndnation and your continual negativity will discourage them and/or cause them to not choose ND.
At least part of the time, please choose the "glass is half full" mentality, not "the glass is half empty".
As has been said before, we are just fans and while we may think we are infallible as arm-chair coaches, the fact of the matter is that we are not as smart as we think we are. Let's give the coaching staff time to do their work and give the team support through the tough times, because Charlie has shown he is unwilling to fail and I believe he is on the cusp of a great run at Notre Dame. Let's get excited for a much improved Irish team this fall.
Thanks for reminding me what at sad day 9/22 was, watching Hughes obliterate the MSU defense only to ride the bench for the entire second half. Then it took CW, what, two more months to realize the beast that Hughes is? "Pass happy" doesn't even begin to say it.
Why does it take you this long to talk about the white elephant in the room. the article is dead on about CW's shortcoming as a college head coach. We have posting this for two years on every website that discusses CF.
Most ND fans cannot accept this thought. Weiss has treated his job like an internship at the expense of the pride and reputation of Notre Dame Fottball. Horrible job.
first gut cutting great analysis of the fat man and all his flaws- you forgot his greed and gluttony in pursuing a malpractice ttial in boston who removed 20 feet of his gut on notre dame time and money -with the boston patriot jury rejecting his bs lawsuit in 1 hour- leaving coaching a weak team floundering for 2 months of jury preperation- when weis gets blown out by michigan ,washinton and usc- the annual rape of notre dame football with all star coach polian directing special teams -lets hope that alumni like you and me have bus tickets for the fat man, little charlie with the head set and kevin white on a grehhound out
I think if Charlie wants to be pass happy, why not desidn a package similar to that of the Patriots and Tom Brady. A Spread package to use our wr's and te's.
Bottom line we need a running game. I miss the days of when we had a reliable tailback who could carry the ball 20+ times a game and dominate, or the days of a offense line that could dominate too.
Maybe I'm missing something, but in 2006 we were 10-3 and lost to Michigan, USC, and LSU. All of those teams had much better football players than ND. Not sure any of the points brought up in the article could compensate for not having as many really good football players as the opposing teams...
Keep calm. This is going to be a good year. We will return to a great OL and have a running game as well as an awesome passing game.
Thanks for the article. I agree that some of the patterns in the play calling last year seemed strange and that Coach has some damaging character problems. But we also all, I think, agree that he is a very smart and clever fellow and that his successes in other areas earn him the right to our extended patience.
In the past, I think THE ROCK has tried to defend him and his vices too much. That's probably just normal patriotism taken a bit too far. I have criticized him alot, but that doesn't mean I'm not fully behind him and the team. Some of my ND friends don't understand this and won't speak to me anymore.
Let's be careful how we interpret each other.
Worried we're gonna be sitting on our coaches Saturdays this Fall with blank stares thinking "I can't believe we suck again this year". I really want to wear the 9-3 rose colored glasses but can't allow myself after last season. "The schedule is soft"..."Charlie learned from last year"..."We have Tenuta to finally install the NASTY we were promised 3 years ago"..."The freshman will step in immediately"...all valid points but not enough to compensate for having the same players and most of the same staff as 2007. Never has OL performance been more crucial to a season as it will be in 2008.
Charlie's loyalty to a couple guys on the staff is noble but alarming; he is trying to make chicken salad out of chicken sh*t and if the OL doesn't perform this year the heat is gonna fall squarely on him for keeping Latina around. We've seen this many times in the past (Willingham with Diedrick, Jauron with John Shoop in Chicago, etc.) and it never seems to work out for the head coach in the long run. Weis must really believe in this guy if he's willing to put his own career on the line for him.
With all that said, word that Jimmy has put on 17 lbs of muscle in the offseason has me pumped. Make us proud this year boys! See y'allz on April 19th...
Once again ND fandom demonstrates why no one in the college football coaching landscape wants this job. I believe the article was well intentioned to demonstrate a few of the issues facing the coaching staff and team. However, I fail to interpret it as the gloom and doom many of the responses would have us believe. Charlie has a lot of work to do to get things right, and it's not going to happen overnight. If your patience is that short, there are plenty of bandwagon teams for bandwagon fans. And I love how self-professed alumni and "die-hard" fans call Weis out on the carpet for being overweight. Stay classy fellas.
Very ironic overall. I have questioned Charlies genius ever since he came to ND. I have not seen anything resembling genius in any of his offensive play calling thus far. Ultimately he only served to open the offense up by throwing more. The last time I saw some real play calling was when Dave Roberts had the opoportunity to do the ofennsive play calling during the Vanderbilt game when Lou was unable to coach. Talk about keeping it simple and keeping the other team totally off balance. While Vandy was not a powerhouse by any stretch - it was masterfully called. All ball Bob didn't do so bad either on the defensive side of the bawl!
In any case this remains ironic overall as ND paid the big bucks to secure Weis' offensive guru status - extended his contract prematurely in my opinion and now Charlie gets to protect his reputation and escape any second guessing by passing the offense onto Hayward! What exactly then is the University paying all these milions for then I ask?
I also disagree to an earlier argument. There are a lot of very good football minds on this blog with more than a few of which could do a better job than Coach Weis. To be afraid of how one may interpret some discussions and to hide behind political correctness only serves to make an undesirable situation worse.
Again - 5 wins would be a tremendous season after last year.
Anon - as far as Hughes against Michigan State, don't forget this was the week his brother was murdered. After his touchdown, Charlie said Hughes had a glazed over look in his eyes and could tell he wouldn't be able to play the rest of the game.
That's the reason you did not see him in the second half.
Last year, I think I saw a beginning of a winning streak. At a game watch, Duke, and at Stanford. With Jon Tenuta, the puzzle has been solved for Weis.
The W's don't even matter anymore, would just like to see some competitiveness at this point. If ND goes 0-10 and the margin of defeat is 7 or less, that'd be a successful season at this point.
You're mistaken, Jason. Navy was the opponent the week Hughes lost his brother. He didn't look too bad on that day either.
Jack, I think you're right about the start of a winning streak. I think the team was starting to turn a corner by understanding the level of competition, and that they do have talent. I think the new class will find that the previous two classes have all positions covered except D-line (we need Yeatman). I think freshman that find regular teams playing time this year will be very special athletes. And dammit, we really need to punch Michigan in the mouth this year.
I like your articles for the most part but the last few have me wondering if you really undterstand football, sprcifically ND football. While your critisims of Weis are sometime indefensible, I disagree about your philosphy of running (maybe not at MSU). I also disagree of passing. The way you play the game is run until they stop it and you pass until they stop it. If that means passing 25 straight times you pass 25 straight times. there is not rules that says you have to run to win games. If it isn't there you don't do it. Running the ball is not going to solve the problems. Also, I totally disagree about in-experienced coaches as being scary. If you go back and look the best coaches from from lesser known schools or div II. See Brian Kelly or Jim Tressel. Brian Kelly is IMO the best coach in college football. Give him USC's talent and I'll be he could win a title every year. So the mantra for ND (which has been the cause of their problems) was to always try to land a big name coach with tons of experience when they should have been looking at Div. or 1AA. App. State coach is a great coach, to take his team with a bunch of backup into the big house and win. So to have inexperience at coaching is not a bad thing and can have huge payoffs if done correctly. With Weis he at least recruits and we can't hire a new coach every 2-3 years, this will bring down any program no matter how great it is.
This assessment of Charlie Weis is long overdue. Up until now everything written has bordered on hero worship. With the exception of USC in 2005 the lack of competitiveness against top 10-15 teams has been very troubling.
That and I've read where he has a tendency to insult the players during practices. That type of approach caught up with Parcells in his last couple of years in Dallas with many of the players glad to see him move on.
I'm nervous at having Haywood prepare the game plan and call the plays. I hope his inexperience doesn't lose games for ND.
If Weis ultimately fails the next coach should come from the college ranks and have a minimum of 5yrs head coaching experience. No more assistant coaches no matter who many super bowl rings or how impressive his credentials.
this is the the article that is perfect for Good Friday, thank you judas. again right on time , a negative toilet is delivered.
Weis is a good coach and I believe he can be great. Let us all just have a little faith. This year is going to be much better. A little easier schedule and more talent. I am looking forward to watching the Irish take the field. Go Irish!!!!
While I share some of the concerns you raise, there is a theme of success which you have overlooked. Charlie Weis has a history of success. He has worn many different hats in his coaching career and he has succeeded in every assignment he has taken. What is happening now at ND is Weis is learning that some methodologies he used successfully in the NFL do not work in college. Some successful college coaches are not able to succeed in the NFL, and some successful NFL coaches are not able to succeed in college. Why? Because they are not able to adapt to the realities of the other level. In my opinion, Weis's resume is proof that he is highly intelligent, analytical, and adaptive. In his brief time at ND, Weis has already shown a willingness to make changes when performance does not meet expectations (e.g. approach to recruiting and hiring C. Brown). He is a man who expects results and holds himself accountable. He is also a man who is able to learn from mistakes, work damn hard, and figure out how to get where he wants to go. Finally we have a coach who is truly a smart guy and is willing to bust his ass for ND and all their fans. What ND and all their fans need to do is give this guy some time to make the adjustments to the college level. He will succeed, he always has. Why is Latina still here? I don't know, but it may be that Weis concluded his (Weis's) blocking schemes were too complicated and it would not be fair to hold Latina accountable for his (Weis's) mistake. At the very least, I think Weis realized he needed to let go of some things - he can't control everything. At some point you have to trust your assistant coaches and let them coach. Latina and Haywood will now have their opportunity to show they are up to the task. If they fail, Weis will replace them. There was a lot of rebuilding to do when Weis arrived. Be patient.
Great article. I hate to say it but ND made another bad hire. No head coaching experience coming in. With that being the case you don't surround yourself with MORE inexperience at the coordinator positions. QB situation was a disaster. Good players couldn't even wait until after the season to leave the program. Two years max, he's back in the NFL.
This if for Chris, you sound like a raider fan, always thinking you know more about football than the guy calling the plays. I for one am an Offensive Coordinator and know how hard it is to call a game and hope it all works out well. Trust me there might be some guys here that know about football, but how many can say they have been they guy that takes the hit when things go wrong. Walk a mile in his shoes before you criticize.
To say that there are guys on this site that can do a better job than Charlie Weis, is a bold statement. You better really know your football and have actually coached football game where you called the plays.
All of you that want to doom and gloom on ND because of last season have no faith. You may even be undercover SC or MU fans. Remember What Charlie did with a talentless team in 05 and 06. It's even harder to do a good job with an inexperienced team.
Just so you know who I am since I can't post my name, my name is Vince from Ca. So get over yourselves and if you are a real Irish Fan try supporting the team.
Weis has already proved he's a good coach. Let him do his job. Quick fretting over a program with talent, tradtion, a reasonable schedule and great assistant coaches. ND will be fine. I'm just as proud of my Irish now as I've ever been in my 25 years as a fan.
GO IRISH
I want to thank a couple of posters for the laugh I got from two of the most ludicrous comments ever ascribed to this blog.
Cardinal... That CW has done a terrible job in his time here. Yeah, 2 BCS bowls with Willingham recruited (read: less than ND-like) talent really blows.
The winner, though was the entrant who suggested perhaps many of the bloggers could do a better job than Weis (one "s" by the way). Pure idiocy.
Great article, largely horrible posts and comments.
Like it or not, Charlie did inherit a "veteran team." However, I believe he did more with those veterans than Ty could have ever hoped to have done. Its hard to lose with someone like BQ as your QB.
Charlie has faults, and I think they are, at this point, readily apparent. Thankfully, none of them are completely damning. Watching Charlie coach, even when our team is entirely anemic, is still not as bad as watching Ty or Davie. Regardless of how bad we are, there is still a different feeling between the CW and TW/BD teams.
While it pains (and everyone else) to see a season like last year's, patience must be encouraged. We cannot continually change coaches; it would be/has been program-suicide. CW has shown he can be a very good coach when the talent is there and that he can recruit very well. I feel its best to try and "wait out" some of CW's college coaching "growing pains."
If in another 2-3 seasons, nothing is looking up, then it may be time to reevaluate his hiring.
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