Comments on: 10th Anniversary NDNation Probability Poll Results

By: Huh

Huh — Fri, 02 Sep 2016 13:47:13 +0000

In reply to SEE. Thanks, it's just a rough look. You could maybe do more with the complete set, but even with 10 years, the season is so short we still don't have much data. Not surprisingly, the collective is decent at this with the exception that 2012 was better than thought and 2009 was worse. 2008 probably would throw in some more "bad surprises" as well.

By: PC

PC — Thu, 01 Sep 2016 19:08:30 +0000

The fans tend to forgot how college football works and that these are still 18-22 year old kids. Some road games are just tricky and the variables are always when you catch a team(momentum or letdown)and their health at the time which is why this type of polling can be quite inaccurate. Mich St appears difficult and you would think we would struggle but they will have played one game against a bad team and we will already have had a good test in Texas. Even as it relates to Vegas odds, if ND handles Texas they will probably be a 5-7 pt favorite over Mich St. Depending on how NC St does this year ND could be the same 5-7pt favorite meanwhile perception is NC ST is weak and Mich ST is some powerhouse.

By: MannyBoy

MannyBoy — Thu, 01 Sep 2016 18:15:16 +0000

I believe the key to winning this game is for Coach Kelly to save all of his first half timeouts just in case Texas attempts a last second field goal.

Oh wait … that’s the key to driving Texas internet fans heads to explode.

By: Jake from Ohio (not State Farm)

Jake from Ohio (not State Farm) — Thu, 01 Sep 2016 17:51:51 +0000

In reply to Jamie. I think USC will get rolled by BAMA and then we'll see how those metrics look. They have front line talent, but there is no depth and physical teams (like I think ND will be) will wear them out. True about the QB though, they'll probably be a much better team when they face the Irish than they will be this weekend.

By: SEE

SEE — Thu, 01 Sep 2016 11:20:12 +0000

In reply to Huh. Good stuff

By: Jamie

Jamie — Wed, 31 Aug 2016 20:51:03 +0000

In reply to CD1. Because it's a road game, USC's new quarterback will not be a new quarterback by that point, and USC is ranked much higher in just about all predictive metrics I've seen. USC should be a better team than Michigan State this year, even if their records are similar; USC just has an insane schedule.

By: CD1

CD1 — Wed, 31 Aug 2016 17:14:20 +0000

In reply to CD1. USC...not USA. We all know Trojans are un-American.

By: CD1

CD1 — Wed, 31 Aug 2016 17:12:22 +0000

I don’t understand the poll respondents who are viewing USA as a tougher opponent than Michigan state this year. Obviously, home vs. Road game make some difference, but I am much more concerned about the Spartans…especially after seeing that ND is trying to have back-to-back 10 win seasons for the first time in 23 years, and MSN has been doing it regularly under Dantonio….

By: Huh

Huh — Wed, 31 Aug 2016 13:44:01 +0000

I looked back at the old predictions vs results. I found every year starting with 2009 except 2014. The biggest misses were at the extremes. ND has won with low probability, Oklahoma and USC ’12, and lost a number of times unexpectedly (Navy ’09 and UConn ’09 the biggest). The first column is the average of NDNation’s estimate of win probability, rounded to nearest X5%.

NDNation……wins…….losses……win %
…35%………….2…………..0……….100%
…45%………….2…………..2……….50%
…55%………….5…………..6……….45%
…65%………..10…………..5……….67%
…75%………..12…………..3……….80%
…85%………..11…………..3……….79%
…95%………….9…………..2……….82%

By: Andrew

Andrew — Wed, 31 Aug 2016 03:47:22 +0000

If we develop a legitimate second receiving threat besides Torii, and some sort of pass rush (from…anyone) then our wildest dreams will come true. If we don’t, then they won’t.