Comments on: 2012 Probability Poll Results

By: Craig

Craig — Fri, 31 Aug 2012 18:13:05 +0000

@SEE, you’re off by an order of magnitude on probability of going undefeated. It’s not 2%, it’s 0.2%.

@ndmaqi, Monte Carlo isn’t necessary, the number of games is small enough for an exact solution to be feasible, yielding:
0 0.0%
1 0.0%
2 0.1%
3 0.4%
4 1.9%
5 6.3%
6 14.4%
7 22.9%
8 25.1%
9 18.2%
10 8.4%
11 2.1%
12 0.2%

Although the individual game probabilities sum to 7.6, the actual probabilities involved make the 50th percentile for wins be a little north of 8. (I had 77% chance of winning 7 or more games, 54% chance of winning 8 or more, 29% chance of winning 9 or more.)

By: Jimbo

Jimbo — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 17:57:08 +0000

In reply to ndmaqi. 8 is just where I came and and bet a lot others. That 8 is top end of the wins I think.

By: Mark P - ND '79

Mark P - ND '79 — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 18:38:22 +0000

7-2 before the coin toss games sounds about right. Just not enough in the tank to expect to beat Top 5’s like OU or USC on the road. Add 2 out of 3 against the likes of U-M, MSU and Stanford and a bowl game win makes it 10-3 and another step forward on the way back to the national conversation.

A stumble in a slight/solid favorite game and 1 out of 3 in the coin-tossers, and the long wander in the desert will continue. Hopin’ for the best, though – Go Irish!

By: pem725

pem725 — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 01:40:22 +0000

SEE – would you mind posting the raw data or a link to it?

By: Brian

Brian — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 00:53:56 +0000

8-4 will be a miraculous season.

By: Doug

Doug — Wed, 29 Aug 2012 00:32:26 +0000

You say the Miami team is no where near the Miami teams of the 80s and 90s like ND is even close? Al Golden is a good coach and even though these teams are not great they can upset ND. ND does not know how to win consitently.

By: 2001sorin

2001sorin — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 22:54:45 +0000

Typo…Five levels of opponents

By: Jim P

Jim P — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 22:10:24 +0000

Sigh. Well these are depressing.

I’m really hoping that we are all VERY WRONG and his becomes a special season. We have top 15 talent and a coach that has won elsewhere with less. We have the QB to run his system. We have a few weaknesses but who doesn’t? USC is thin. Alabama is reloading on D. Oklahoma has a weak O-Line. Florida State may have talent but what makes everyone think that Jimbo Fisher is a winning coach? LSU has a freshman QB.

Plus, we weren’t that far off last year! Turnovers and penalties killed us in three games. TR wasn’t talented enough to win us games big games. He was a game manager. Now we have an electric QB that we all think will make us better. The players have another year in the system and know what is expected of them. In my opinion we upgraded our assisstant coaches. Despite the toughness of the schedule I really think we might suprise some people. Let’s get thru the first 3 games unscathed and I think the momentum and confidence just grows from there.

By: ndmaqi

ndmaqi — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 19:00:04 +0000

ok, I’m a nerd – monte carlo sim, took me like 3 mins so don’t mock me too much

The distributions look something like:
Less than 3 has a < 1% chance of happening at all.

#wins %probabillity
4 1%
5 5%
6 14%
7 22%
8 26%
9 19%
10 8%
11 2%
12 0.3%

By: Gmoney

Gmoney — Tue, 28 Aug 2012 15:33:27 +0000

I would move Miami to a solid favorite…this is nowhere near the Miami teams of the 80s and 90s talent or coaching wise and I don’t understand the hoopla about that game. Miami is morphing backward. As I said before the Sun Bowl two years ago, I will take Notre Dame and give up the points. I would move Boston College to a solid favorite. I’m taking the bye and the points.