Notre Dame will host Quincy Magoo’s beloved Rutgers Scarlett Knights at noon tomorrow to start Super Bowl Sunday for several thousand barely awake students and a complement of Michiana sports fans.  It is ND’s first home game in two weeks.  While they were gone, the Irish took sole possession of second place in the Big East with victories over DePaul and first place Pittsburgh.

The Knights will arrive in desperate need of a win.  Rutgers has lost three games in a row, falling to 3-7 in the Big East and 12-10 overall.  The last two have been heart breakers, a three point loss to Pitt at the RAC last Saturday and a two point loss at St. John’s on Wednesday.  RU played Pitt close throughout the game only to lose on a three point basket with 21 seconds to play.  Another late basket, this time with 4 seconds to play, decided the SJU game.

Will the Knights be able to muster another great effort like those two?

What you need to know about Rutgers:

• #12 scoring offense in the Big East, 64.4 ppg
• #10 scoring defense in the Big East, 68.4 ppg
• #13 free throw percentage in the Big East, 67.4%
• #7 field goal percentage in the Bg East, 44.4%
• #3 field goal percentage defense in the Big East, 40.4%
• #7 three-point percentage in the Big East, 33.8%
• #13 rebounding margin in the Big East, -2.9
• #13 assists per game in the Big East, 12.4
• #12 turnover margin in the Big East, -0.2
• #12 assists/turnover ratio in the Big East, 1.0

Forward Jonathan Mitchell is Rutgers’ leading scorer and rebounder with 14.7 points (13th in the Big East) and 5.6 boards per game.  No one else in Mike Rice’s eight man rotation has a double figures scoring average.

Rutgers features an athletic frontcourt lineup that is the #2 shot blocking team in the Big East.  Sophomore Dane Miller is the conference’s #5 shot blocker with 2.3 per game

What you need to know about Notre Dame:

• #9 scoring offense in the Big East, 67.2 ppg
• #4 scoring defense in the Big East, 64.9 ppg
• #6 free throw percentage in the Big East, 72.5%
• #5 field goal percentage in the Big East, 45.3%
• #9 field goal percentage defense in the Big East, 43.3%
• #4 three-point percentage in the Big East, 38.1%
• #10 rebounding margin in the Big East, -1.4
• #9 assists per game in the Big East, 14.1 per game
• #8 turnover margin in the Big East, +0.4
• #7 assist/turnover ratio in the Big East, 1.2

Ben Hansbrough’s 18.7 points per game lead the Irish in scoring and  have him up to 4th in the conference.  Tim Abromaitis (11.9) and Scott Martin (10.6) add double-digit averages with Carleton Scott and Ty Nash between 9.0 and 10.  Nash took the team rebounding this week with his 5.6 per game average.   Scott and Martin are right behind him at 5.5.

Almost every key statistic has improved for the Irish over the last three weeks except one, rebounding margin which remains below break even.  DePaul, one of the Big East’s worst rebounding teams, beat the Irish on the boards by two; so the concern will persist until the Irish do better.  Sunday against another one of the teams near the bottom of the Big East rebounding rankings will present Notre Dame with another chance to improve.

The Matchup

Even though their circumstances are different, the game represents the same thing to each – a test of mental toughness.

Heart breaking losses have put even NIT aspirations in jeopardy for Rutgers.  With games against Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse, Louisville, and West Virginia over the next month, it would be easy for the Knights to start going through the motions.  However, this is a mostly young team with a new coach that needs to believe this season is a foundation for what it wants to accomplish over the next few years.  We should expect Rutgers to have the mental toughness to play hard but know that it’s a team that’s ready to be demoralized if Notre Dame is sharp to start the game.

The question is whether Notre Dame will be sharp to start.  The Irish have given no reason to doubt their preparation so far this season, but this is the first time since the conference season started that they have been prohibitive favorites two games in a row.  It’s a great opportunity to show their fans and, most importantly, themselves that they have the drive they’ll need to make a postseason run.  Taking care of business against the lesser teams on the remaining schedule will both earn this squad a high tournament seeding and demonstrate that it’s likely to take advantage of it.

Rutgers will match ND’s frontcourt size and athleticism, and it will challenge the Irish with a small but quick backcourt.  Hansbrough will be RU’s match-up challenge because he’s bigger and stronger than both of its guards.  Rutgers can counter with a four forward lineup similar to Notre Dame’s, but it will put itself at a speed and quickness disadvantage when it does.

Notre Dame simply has to play its game to win.  There is no need to play slowdown offense the whole game.  If the Irish take care of the ball and play good defense, they’ll win.  The real question is how they’ll do on the boards.  With the somewhat easier second half schedule, ND has a good chance to get onto the plus side of the rebounding margin ledger; but it didn’t happen against DePaul.  Rebounding should be Irish fan’s biggest concern, maybe the only concern at this point; so rebounding is what you should watch tomorrow.

Game information

• Rutgers (12-10/3-7) at #9 Notre Dame (18-4/7-3)
• Sunday, February 6th, at noon (ET)
• Purcell Pavillion at the Joyce Center, Notre Dame, IN
• Television: Big East syndication including WMYS 69/269 in South Bend.  Check local and setellite sports channels for coverage near you.
• Internet: ESPN3.com

(Note: All cited statistics are for conference games only as of the start of the weekend.)

– Kevin O’Neill