Notre Dame returns home in search of its first win as the Fighting Irish face 2-0 Michigan State on Saturday. These teams battled to the last play in the past two seasons with the Spartans winning in overtime last year and Notre Dame coming out on top in 2009. Coach Mark Dantonio, now in his fifth campaign, has built a solid program in East Lansing. The defending Big-10 champions appear to have improved in terms of experience and depth, with 15 returning starters and a few impressive newcomers.

The Irish need a win badly, and find little consolation in being regarded as the best 0-2 team in America. With ten turnovers in two games, that dubious honor is certainly debatable.  Nevertheless, Notre Dame has shown flashes of brilliance, and the season is recoverable if these mistakes can be eliminated. When asked about his team’s prospects for recovery, Coach Brian Kelly responded by saying, “We’re doing some really good things. I think if it was a mess the whole day, and you’re just looking at it and going, oh, my God, this thing is just out of control, it’s a play here, it’s a play there that we can get back, so they can see the body of work is there, they just have to be more attentive to the little details.”

Michigan State is playing its first road game of the season, but the coaches and players can draw upon recent history to generate a high level of confidence. The Spartans have won six of the last seven games at Notre Dame and have fashioned a 10-4 overall mark against the Irish in the last 14 seasons.

Both teams are relatively healthy, although Notre Dame lost backup tight end Mike Ragone for the season and starting nose tackle Sean Cwynar is questionable with a broken hand. The larger injury problem for the Irish is related to their collective confidence and pride. Fortunately, each can be restored with a crisp and successful effort against one of the better teams on the schedule.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE’S DEFENSE

The Irish recorded 500 yards of total offense in each of their first two games, so their ability to move the ball is not in question. Similar success against the Spartans will be more difficult, however, particularly in the ground game. Tackle Jerel Worthy leads a formidable defensive front four that is deep, experienced and athletic across the board. Fans can expect a physical battle all day where every yard is precious.

Michigan State has several new faces in the back seven to defend against Notre Dame’s aerial assault. The linebackers are young but talented. Chris Norman is the lone returning starter on the weak side, and sophomore Max Bullough is an emerging star in the middle. This unit has yielded only 2.8 yards per rush against admittedly inferior competition, but they are fundamentally sound. The Irish were also solid in the running game last week as Jonas Gray rebounded to have a strong performance in support of Cierre Wood, who topped 100 yards in his second straight game.

Theo Riddick and T.J. Jones also recovered from tough openers to make strong contributions last week. These additional weapons will give quarterback Tommy Rees downfield options other than All-American candidate Michael Floyd. The Spartan secondary features key returning players in cornerback Johnny Adams and free safety Trenton Robinson. New cornerback Darqueze Dennard is so good he has been inserted at the more demanding field corner spot, moving the incumbent Adams to boundary corner.

Notre Dame will have to win its share of the physical battles in order to score enough points to win. Michigan State prefers to pressure the passer with four rushers as opposed to sending blitzes, so the Irish must give Rees time to throw and his receivers must work hard to get open. Since scoring opportunities are bound to be more limited than in the previous two games, it goes without saying that Notre Dame cannot afford to squander good field position, turn the ball over or otherwise fail to finish drives.

MICHIGAN STATE’S  OFFENSE VS. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Kirk Cousins is a fifth year senior who is in his third year as the starter. He completed 67% of his passes last year and has hit at an 81% clip with no interceptions so far in 2011. He is surrounded by a veteran group of wide receivers led by B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin, who caught eight passes in last year’s contest. The Spartans have a pair of fifth year seniors at tight end, where Brian Linthicum is joined by Garrett Celek, whose brother Brett is a star at the same position for the Philadelphia Eagles.

It’s no secret that Dantonio emphasizes the running game, and this year’s group of backs is both excellent and diverse. Starter Edwin Baker, who ran for 1200 yards last season as a sophomore, leads the way. When a heavier payload is required, the Spartans turn to the 237 lb. Le’Veon Bell. Veteran Larry Caper is an accomplished receiver and pass blocker who often enters the lineup on third down. One consolation for the Irish is that Cousins is strictly a traditional pocket passer rather than a dual threat quarterback, so a few of the defensive worries they harbored for B.J. Daniels and Denard Robinson will not impact them this week.

Michigan State’s success this season will largely depend on its offensive line. Long time starters at center and both tackle positions have been replaced this year due to graduation losses. Left guard Joel Foreman is the best player in this group and the only familiar face. Left tackle Dan France is a converted tight end, and has earned the starting position. He is joined by fellow newcomer Skylar Burkland on the right side. Notre Dame will counter this pair with senior defensive ends Ethan Johnson and Kapron Lewis-Moore. This matchup should favor the Irish and could translate into much-needed pressure on Cousins.

The rushing numbers for the Spartans in their two lopsided victories are surprisingly average. They gained four yards per carry against undermanned teams, so the line may not have jelled to this point. If Notre Dame can force MSU into long third down situations and make Cousins uncomfortable in the pocket, they will greatly improve their chances of winning. Cousins cannot be allowed to sit back and pick apart the Irish secondary, which must also find answers after a few catastrophic breakdowns last week.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is an area where a definite gap exists between these teams. The Spartans are solid while Notre Dame has struggled, especially in the return game and in punting the football. Ben Turk has netted only 28 yards per punt for the Irish while Mike Sadler is ten yards better at Michigan State. The elusive Martin returns punts at a nine yard clip for MSU, while Notre Dame is still trying to get its act together.

The respective place kickers each had outstanding seasons in 2010. David Ruffer missed his first field goal attempt this year but converted last week in solid fashion. The usually reliable Dan Conroy has hit from long range but inexplicably missed both 2011 attempts inside 30 yards. This may have some significance because backup Kevin Muma had to come in last week to make a 28-yarder.

SUMMARY

The Spartans can rely on Cousins to keep them in the game until the end, but their ultimate success will rest on how their rebuilt offensive line performs against the Irish front. Dantonio will not give up on the run as he knows that fatigue can become a factor in a contest that is sure to be decided late. Notre Dame has concerns of its own with a suddenly porous secondary and the dark cloud of turnovers that has settled over its offensive huddle.

Despite the alarming and costly instances of poor play by the Irish, this is a very winnable game. The team’s talent base is obvious after the first two weeks and one must believe they cannot continue to self destruct. A victory won’t completely erase the 0-2 start, but it could ignite a run of success against a stretch of lesser opponents through the bye week in mid-October.

Here are a few questions that will weigh into the outcome:

Will Notre Dame be able to convert on third and short?

Which team will be able to generate pressure on the quarterback?

Can the Irish clean up their turnover problem and force a few of their own?

Which team will have greater success in the ground game?

Can the interior of Notre Dame’s offensive line contain MSU’s huge defensive tackles?

Will Cousins be able to continue his remarkable accuracy in the passing game?

Will the Irish special teams look solid or shaky?

PREDICTION

Emotions and intangibles such as mental toughness will definitely factor into the outcome. Notre Dame is desperate for a win and the crowd will do its part to provide support. Dantonio will tell his team to ride out the storm and stay patient because they will ultimately be rewarded. In evaluating this contest, one must consider whether Notre Dame’s talent and desire will overcome Michigan State’s discipline and cold-blooded efficiency. Although I am torn between these forces, the tie breaker for me is the difference between the quarterbacks. Cousins is clearly superior and should ultimately tip the scales in favor of the Spartans.

MICHIGAN STATE 28  NOTRE DAME 27