Notre Dame and Ohio State will clash on New Year’s Day in the Fiesta Bowl, in a game that is essentially a consolation prize for two teams that narrowly missed out on the college football playoff. The Irish and Buckeyes last met in this desert venue ten years ago in a game won by the Buckeyes behind Heisman trophy winner Troy Smith, but are not scheduled to play each other during the regular season until 2022-23. On this occasion, the pregame buildup has been focused on who will be available to play for each team, since injuries and suspensions have impacted the starting lineups. ESPN will provide national television coverage beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern time.

The 11-1 Buckeyes are led by Urban Meyer, who is 49-4 at the school and has earned three career national championships. Meyer was recognized as an up and coming coaching talent by Lou Holtz, and he spent five years as an Irish assistant from 1996-2000 before taking his first head coaching position at Bowling Green in 2001. Ohio State was favored and on track to repeat as national champions this season until getting derailed by Michigan State in a rare home loss. The Buckeyes regrouped a week later to schlong arch rival Michigan by 42-13.

Asked if his team would be motivated in the Fiesta Bowl despite missing the playoff, Meyer talked about the initial disappointment but added, ““Then, when you get picked in this kind of bowl game, one of the top bowl games in the country against an opponent like we’re going to play, I’m very confident we’re going to play very hard.” There is little doubt that Meyer will have his team ready, but they will play without their two best defensive tackles in Adolphus Washington (suspension) and Tommy Schutt (foot).

The Irish are also in a state of flux with regard to injuries. The secondary was already depleted by the loss of starting cornerback KeiVarae Russell, but his replacement, Devin Butler, went down this week in practice with a broken foot. To make matters worse, safety Max Redfield was sent home due to a violation of team rules. On the plus side, Coach Brian Kelly expects to have nose tackle Jarron Jones back for this game after losing him for the entire season to a knee injury suffered in fall camp. The offense also gets a boost with the return of tight end Durham Smythe, and running back C.J. Prosise should see action after missing significant time in November due to a sprained ankle and a concussion.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE’S DEFENSE

Besides the return of Prosise to share time with standout freshman Josh Adams, the Irish running game should get a boost simply because the offensive line is healthy again. Four of the five starters were limited by ankle injuries during the latter part of the season, but are fully recovered. The loss of Schutt and Washington will force backups Michael Hill, Donovan Munger, Joel Hale and Tracy Sprinkle into the spotlight for Ohio State. All-American end Joey Bosa may also move inside on third down while pass rush specialist Sam Hubbard backfills his slot. Bosa, Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis are a formidable and disruptive group of pass rushers that will test the Irish front with speed, power and stunts.

The Buckeyes also have an imposing trio of linebackers. Senior Josh Perry, leading tackler Raekwon McMillan and exceptional playmaker Darren Lee can stuff the run as well as rush the quarterback. Even with a depleted line, this front seven is very difficult to block and will not yield ground easily. Notre Dame will obviously focus on Bosa to make sure he is blocked, but he is far from the only problem presented by this talented defense.

Safeties Tyvis Powell and Vonn Bell lead a physical but relatively young secondary. Sophomore cornerbacks Gareon Conley and Eli Apple are the beneficiaries of a fierce pass rush, but will have their work cut out for them with Will Fuller and the Irish receivers provided DeShone Kizer has time to throw. Washington and Schutt usually collapse the pocket with inside pressure while Bosa comes around the end for the kill, but so their absence the OSU defensive coaches to make adjustments.

The Buckeyes have managed to win games with great defense while the offense underwent changes at quarterback and searched for an identity. They have a habit of creating negative plays for opponents when they are needed most, and are among the nation’s top five in preventing long plays from scrimmage. Their physical nature and pure athleticism at both linebacker and defensive end make this a very tough unit to score against.

OHIO STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The return of Jarron Jones, even if only on a part time basis, will help the Irish in that stalwarts Sheldon Day and Isaac Rochelle can play their natural positions on the line. They will battle a powerful group led by left tackle Taylor Decker and center Jacoby Boren, who have cleared the way for 5.7 yards per rush by Elliott and others.

The Ohio State offense is impressive in its simplicity, as they hand the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and watch him wear down opponents with ruthless efficiency. Working off that threat, elusive quarterback J.T. Barrett keeps the ball and rambles for first downs time and again until he pulls back and tosses play action passes to wide receivers that are frequently left wide open. With Russell, Butler and Redfield out of the lineup, players such as Nick Watkins, Nick Coleman, Matthias Farley and even Torii Hunter, Jr. will be pressed into extended service.

While Barrett is not a great pure passer, the play-action threat in Ohio State’s offense makes him very effective. Michael Thomas and Jalin Marshall are the primary targets, while former quarterback Braxton Miller and tight end Nick Vannett are also threats. If the Buckeyes need to throw it more often, last year’s hero Cardale Jones, a more dynamic passer, is available.

The Irish can expect a healthy dose of Elliott throughout the day. The pattern has been early gains of four yards that slowly become 14 yards until eventually he breaks a couple of runs for 40 yards. Opponents that try to tackle Elliott above the waist usually find themselves being taken on a ten yard ride. When opponents begin to anticipate another run by Elliott, Meyer has the knack of calling the perfect play on third down or in the red zone to catch them off guard.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s Justin Yoon was named to the freshman All-America team as the place kicker, and deservedly so. He will have an advantage over Ohio State’s Jack Willoughby, who has not made a kick longer than 39 yards this season.

The Buckeyes have exceptional coverage teams on both punts and kickoffs, while the Irish have been solid. Marshall is a dangerous punt returner and will need to be held in check. Curtis Samuel and Dontrelle Willis handle the kickoffs, but neither has brought one back for more than 27 yards.

One thing to watch during this contest is Meyer’s propensity to incorporate fake punts and field goals into his game plans. Notre Dame may elect to go with a safe alignment on each of these occasions and sacrifice a few potential return yards for possession of the ball.

SUMMARY
The game will be a fierce war in the trenches, and each powerful offensive line will seek to clear a path for its talented tailbacks to run downhill. While the Buckeyes are shorthanded along the defensive line, their back seven is far superior to Notre Dame’s despite the extraordinary talents of Jaylon Smith. It will be difficult for the Irish to stop the relentless Elliott and the elusive Barrett on third down with a patchwork secondary and shaky tackling at two of the three linebacker spots.

To come away with a victory, Notre Dame’s offense must take care of the football, avoid costly dropped passes, and find improvement in the red zone. Defensively, they need to force Barrett into passing situations. When that happens, he must be contained him from scrambling for backbreaking first downs in similar fashion to what Troy Smith did to the Irish a decade ago.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will either offensive line be able to take control of the opponent’s front?

Which team’s play action passing game will be most effective?

Can Notre Dame’s depleted secondary hold up for 60 minutes?

Will Notre Dame find answers in the red zone?

Can Will Fuller work his magic against the stingy Buckeyes?

Which quarterback will best protect the football?

Will the return of Smythe at tight end help the Irish in the red zone?

How many NFL teams will Brian Kelly’s name be connected to this week?

PREDICTION

Bowl games are notoriously difficult to predict, as one must assume that both teams will show up emotionally and play hard. The Irish have the more versatile and potent attack on paper, but Ohio State has the athleticism on defense to keep them reasonably in check. The Buckeyes are more likely to generate long plays given Notre Dame’s propensity for missed tackles and blown coverages. Meyer will exploit these weaknesses with cold-blooded precision mixed with a few surprise elements, and the game might get ugly if the Irish commit multiple turnovers.

OHIO STATE 38 NOTRE DAME 23