Notre Dame kicks off its 2016 football campaign on Sunday night against the University of Texas Longhorns in Austin, TX. This is the first time in ten years that the Fighting Irish have played in a true road game to begin the season, as this contest completes a home and home series with Texas that opened with a dominant 38-3 Notre Dame victory last year. Longhorn Coach Charley Strong (11-14) enters his third season at Texas with a wealth of young talent and lofty expectations. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly (55-23) leads the Irish in his seventh season, where he hopes to take the next step to reach the college football playoffs after last year’s contenders faltered with two late losses to finish at 10-3.

There are several similarities between the teams this season. At quarterback, each coach will deploy two talented athletes after close competitions failed to produce a clear winner for their respective starting jobs. Both teams will also deploy an inexperienced set of wide receivers, but are well-stocked at running back. While the Irish are well-trained in Kelly’s system, the Longhorns are in the process of implementing their fourth offense in four years. Strong hired Coordinator Sterlin Gilbert from Tulsa during the offseason to establish a faced paced spread attack. He also brought in three new assistant coaches for the offense and one more on defense.

The quarterback battle in Austin is between senior Tyrone Swoopes and freshman Shane Buechele. Last season, Swoopes started against Notre Dame but was replaced by Jarrod Heard, who has since moved to wide receiver. Buechele is a highly recruited passer who represents the future for Texas, and Strong has to decide whether that future begins now under the brightest spotlight. Strong won’t say which QB will get the nod. “I know who is going to start,” Strong said. “But we’ll see who runs out there on Sunday.”

Longhorn followers believe Buechele will become the starter at some point in the season, while others (including me) expect Strong to roll the dice with the freshman from the opening snap. Swoopes, a powerful runner who is three inches taller and 60 pounds heavier than Buechele, will see action in short yardage and goal line situations.

Malik Zaire and DeShon Kizer present a different but no less difficult conundrum to Kelly. Each is a proven winner with excellent leadership qualities despite bringing unique physical abilities to the table. Kizer is a better overall passer and a more efficient decision-maker in the pocket, but is certainly not a liability if he has to run with the ball. Zaire is a dynamic runner and is sufficiently accomplished as a passer to win games in Kelly’s system. I expect both to play extensively, although Kizer will probably start and Zaire will see considerable time in the red zone.

Attrition from injuries fall camp was not especially serious for either team, but a few issues occurred that will impact the starting lineups. The Longhorn offensive line recently suffered a spate of injuries to three players; center Zach Shackelford, tackle Tristan Nickelson, and guard Patrick Vahe. Shackelford’s injury will likely keep him on the sidelines while the others should be ready to play. Three potential Irish starters lost time due to injury and fell behind on the depth chart, but they have since returned to practice. Defensive end Jay Hayes will now back up Andrew Trumbetti, free safety Devin Studstill is next in line behind named starter Avery Sebastian, and running back Josh Adams will see action behind senior Tarean Folston.

Of course, the most publicized developments at Notre Dame resulted in the loss of a pair of seniors from the secondary when free safety Max Redfield was dismissed from the team and cornerback Devin Butler was suspended indefinitely following separate brushes with law enforcement on August 20. Four other players associated with the incident involving Redfield – linebacker Te’von Coney, wide receiver Kevin Stepherson, cornerback Ashton White and running back Dexter Williams remain on the team and will be available to play pending further disciplinary action from the University. These decisions are not expected to be made prior to kickoff.

There have been some serious bumps in the road in the Texas program under Strong as well, but most of the conflict has taken place inside the locker room. Several talented freshmen joined the starting ranks last season, and this led to tension with the veterans. During his first season in Austin, Strong dismissed nine players for breaking a variety of team rules. After a 1-3 start last year, the internal strife among players spilled out into social media before the wagons were circled. More recently, the Longhorns suffered further attrition as 11 players left the program this offseason. Strong continues to search for leaders among the upperclassmen, stating, “It’s better than it has been, and if you harp on something enough I think they get the message”.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. TEXAS’ DEFENSE

While the aforementioned player-related incidents have an obvious negative impact on the program, the most significant development for Kelly’s offense may prove to be the one semester academic suspension of tight end Aliz’e Jones. While Will Fuller from last year’s team caused a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and created space for other playmakers to operate, Jones was supposed to be that player in 2016 due to his rare combination of size and speed. As it stands, Torii Hunter, Jr. is the only proven wideout. Hunter will be joined by sophomores Equanimeous St. Brown and slot man C.J. Sanders. Durham Smythe and Nic Weishar are steady tight ends whose main area of work will be in the short zones.

While the quarterbacks and receivers are developing chemistry in live situations, the running game will be counted upon to generate points. Fortunately, the Irish have a strong offensive line, where the left side is manned by tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Quenton Nelson. Center and right tackle have been locked down since the spring by Sam Mustipher and Alex Bars, and senior Colin McGovern was just named the starting right guard ahead of sophomore Tristen Hoge.

Folston, Adams, Williams and freshman Tony Jones will run behind this massive front line, and all could be starters for many teams in the country. The Longhorn 4-2-5 defense is stout up the middle with tackles Poona Ford and Paul Boyette, who are the only upperclassmen among the front six. Strong recruited five freshmen linemen over 300 pounds to provide depth for these upperclassmen, and some will play early. Linebacker Malik Jefferson returns for his sophomore campaign after a stellar freshman season. The Irish, especially Mustipher and McGovern, must be able to neutralize these Longhorn interior run-stuffers.

Texas plays a five-man secondary, which is typical for the pass-heavy Big-12 conference. Four of the starters are sophomores, but the talent level is undeniable. Cornerbacks Davante Davis and Holton Hill are 6’2”, and the matchup between Davis and Torii Hunter should be fun to watch. The lone grizzled veteran in the group is safety Dylan Haines, who recorded five interceptions last season. The Longhorns believe they can cover Notre Dame’s receivers and double down on their run defense. If true, the Irish could find it difficult to score since Fuller is not there to bail them out. The battle between each team’s sophomores – Irish receivers and Longhorn defensive backs – will have a large bearing on the outcome.

TEXAS’ OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The offensive line was unable to handle the Irish last season, but left tackle Connor Williams and right guard Patrick Vahe are now confident sophomores. The group’s lone senior, right tackle Kent Perkins, is aware of the expectations this season. “I’m fired up,” he said. “Me and my boys are ready because we have something to prove.” True freshman Zach Shackelford won the starting center position, but he is unable to play due to injury. It’s not clear who will start in his place, but there may not be a lot of volunteers to go up against Notre Dame’s Jarron Jones.

If Texas can open holes in the Irish defense, running backs D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren are downhill runners who weigh in at more than 235 pounds. Gilbert’s fast-paced attack will seek to take advantage of the fatigue factor in the Texas heat, and hope that Notre Dame’s defensive front will have insufficient time and stamina to pressure Buechele in the pocket. This battle in the trenches is the key to the game. The Irish must clog the running lanes and disrupt the timing of Buechele’s passes despite the rapid fire plays orchestrated by Gilbert.

Questions also remain along Notre Dame’s defensive back seven. Linebackers James Onwualu and Greer Martini are solid performers but not true difference makers, while neither Drue Tranquill nor Avery Sebastian possess the ideal physical skills for the safety positions. Middle linebacker Nyles Morgan, now a junior, is the key player this season for the Irish defense. Previously, his immense talent has been overshadowed by a tendency to be out of position, resulting in big plays by the opponent. A dedicated student of the game, Morgan can soften the impact of Jaylon Smith’s departure if he can master the mental aspects of Brian VanGorder’s defensive scheme.

The revamped Irish secondary will be tasked to cover a talented but relatively inexperienced group of Longhorn receivers led by sophomore John Burt, who caught 28 passes last year for a team-best 457 yards. Note that Notre Dame’s top returning receiver, Torii Hunter, also had 28 receptions in 2015. First year starters Shaun Crawford and Nick Coleman will join senior Cole Luke at the corner and nickel back positions to match up against Texas’ three wide receiver base attack.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Justin Yoon and Tyler Newsome return as the respective place kicking and punting specialists for the Irish. Both had outstanding campaigns in 2015 and Newsome was named the most valuable player in the 2016 Spring Game. Some concern surfaced early in fall camp regarding Yoon’s ability to adapt to a new holder, where Montgomery VanGorder has replaced Kizer, but Yoon’s recent practices have produced more consistent results. If anything, Yoon’s range and leg strength has improved during the offseason. Sanders is the primary punt and kickoff return man for the Irish. This is good news because he returned one of each variety for a touchdown last season and helped improve Kelly’s much-maligned special teams.

The Longhorns needed a new kicker this year, and coincidently LSU graduate Trent Domingue was looking to extend his college career. The transfer was completed in July and Domingue has won the job in Austin. He converted 13 of 17 field goal attempts for the Tigers last season, with a long of 45 yards. Kris Boyd, a reserve defensive back, will handle the return duties for Texas. He had nine kickoff returns last season for a 20-yard average, but has not previously returned punts.

SUMMARY

The primary question marks for the Irish are whether they can successfully adjust to the departure of their best players from the 2015 squad – Will Fuller and Jaylon Smith. The loss of Sheldon Day is partially offset by the return of Jarron Jones, who can be a difference maker on the interior of the defensive line if he plays with the passion that Day brought to the table. Regarding the Longhorns, the youth movement must finally come together for Strong and produce measurably better results.

The outcome will be determined in a few critical areas – control of the line of scrimmage, quarterback play, depth due to the heat, and intangibles. Turnovers, of course, and game-changing plays on special teams are always significant, but we’ll assume these things are equal for now.

Notre Dame has a clear advantage at quarterback, however it remains to be seen whether the Longhorns have closed the gap at the line of scrimmage that was so evident one year ago. The team that runs the ball more effectively will have a decided advantage, and the ground game is particularly important for Texas since Buechele is making his first start and Swoopes is only a 50% career passer.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Which team will seize momentum with a strong start?

Can the new Irish safeties prevent the big 40+ yard play?

Which defensive line will be able to put pressure on the quarterback?

Will Notre Dame finally convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns?

Which team’s young wide receivers will exceed expectations?

Can either team run the ball consistently?

Will each team’s quarterback rotation help or hinder its offense?

Which special teams will deliver a field position advantage?

Can either defense generate turnovers?

Will either team have a clear starting quarterback by the end of the night?

PREDICTION

Intangibles appear to favor Texas, who is playing at home with a chip on its shoulder. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s season nearly went up in smoke two weeks ago, and it remains to be seen whether the Irish can match the Longhorns’ intensity and focus. The questions surrounding each team, the quarterback rotations and the number of new faces in each lineup make this a very difficult game to predict, but Notre Dame has the more accomplished quarterbacks, are playing in a familiar offensive system, and should still have an edge in the trenches to overcome the home field advantage for the Horns.

NOTRE DAME 27 TEXAS 17