Notre Dame returns home to play the Air Force Academy on Saturday as the first half of the season comes to a close. The 3-2 Irish have a bye next week before entertaining the USC Trojans on October 22. Brian Kelly’s squad has won three straight after a rocky start, and Notre Dame fans hope that a victory against the Falcons will serve as a springboard to another strong second half of the season. Meanwhile, Air Force will challenge the hosts with its very diverse option-based rushing attack and a surprisingly capable passing game.

Air Force defeated Navy in overtime last week on a blocked extra point. The game was played in Annapolis, and the 3-1 Falcons must travel to South Bend to battle the Irish before a Thursday night home date against San Diego State on October 13. Senior quarterback Tim Jefferson leads a veteran offense for head coach Troy Calhoun, who is 37-19 in his fifth season at his alma mater. The team ranks third nationally with 365 rushing yards per game, and is 12^th overall in total offense at 514 yards.

The Irish offense has been quite productive as well, and the absence of any turnovers last week at Purdue was a welcome development. The defense has performed extremely well all season except for a fatal 17-minute stretch in Ann Arbor, however the Falcon option attack will keep the midnight oil burning this week in Notre Dame Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco’s office. Diaco had no answer for Navy’s veer offense last season, and this week’s matchup will provide insight into his ability to learn and adapt.

As with any football team entering October, injuries begin to factor into the equation. Notre Dame may be without senior defensive lineman Ethan Johnson, whose ankle sprain will either keep him on the sideline or limit his participation. A decision regarding Johnson’s status is not expected much before game time. Air Force has its own health issues on defense as five starters have been lost since the season began.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. AIR FORCE’S DEFENSE

Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray ran for nearly 300 yards last week and may exceed that total against the undersized Falcons. Air Force has surrendered 227 rush yards per game against four opponents that are not at Notre Dame’s level, and Kelly would be wise to maximize the use of his team’s significant physical advantage. The Falcons have already lost starting linemen Zach Payne and Ryan Gardner in their three man front. Replacements Harry Kehs (255 lbs.) and Nick DeJulio (230 lbs.) have joined Ben Kopacka, who was moved to end from nose tackle to make room for Kehs.

Linebackers Alex Means and Brady Amack are the heart and soul of the defense, while sophomore Jamil Cooks is a promising newcomer who was elevated to a starting role when Patrick Hennessey went down two weeks ago. Free safety Jon Davis leads the secondary, which has also lost two starters in cornerback Chris Miller and strong safety Brian Lindsay. These holes have been filled by Josh Hall and Anthony Wooding, respectively.

This patchwork unit does not figure to stop Notre Dame unless the Irish revert to the pattern of unforced turnovers and penalties that cost them dearly in September. Tommy Rees should not have to throw more than 20 passes in this game, but there will be plenty of options whenever he drops back into the pocket. The Falcons cannot rely on safety help to cover Michael Floyd due to the improved Irish ground game, and Kelly will also look to get Theo Riddick involved after being shut out last week.

Floyd, who will be covered by senior cornerback Anthony Wright, remains a valuable weapon and a security blanket for Rees. The Irish should take advantage of any mismatch involving their best offensive player, but must also look to spread the ball around to others when they are not simply lining up and knocking the Falcons off the line of scrimmage.

A goal for Notre Dame in this game should be to execute its offense crisply and capitalize on scoring opportunities. They could take a lesson in efficiency from the Falcons, who have converted 59% of third downs and have scored on 88% of their trips to the red zone. The Irish are at 42% and 63% in these categories, respectively.

AIR FORCE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Calhoun has expanded upon the typical service academy reliance on the triple option. He has mixed in read option runs and passes that his players have performed with increased efficiency since the start of the season. Jefferson has become a 70% passer, which is impressive on a team that throws just 20% of the time. His favorite targets are the swift but small Mikel Hunter, and 6’4” Zack Kauth. Jonathan Warzeka and 200 lb. tight end Josh Freeman are also capable if little-used receivers.

The running game is still the focus of this offense. Asher Clark is the primary tailback, and his 9.3 ypc average speaks volumes about the capability of this offense. Jefferson actually has more carries to date but at a 4.3 yard clip. The fullback duties are split between Mike DeWitt and Wesley Cobb. The Falcons have an experienced offensive line that emphasizes agility over size. Most of the starters are in the 250-260 pound range except for guard A.J. Wallerstein, who weighs in at 285.

Air Force will have to score a lot of points to win this game, and the matchup between Calhoun’s imaginative scheme against Diaco’s formidable front seven is critical. It is noteworthy that the Falcons have allowed only one sack and have had very few negative plays (only 39 total yards lost) all season. Notre Dame must combine discipline with brute force in order to avoid big plays where they are out of position or biting on a run fake. The Irish would prefer to have Johnson in the lineup, and it is an open question as to whether freshmen defensive ends Aaron Lynch and Stephon Tuitt can be successful in their first exposure to such an unconventional attack.

The Irish defenders should be able to get off blocks and keep Air Force contained for the most part, although some early success by the visitors is inevitable. Despite its ability to move the ball, the Falcons trail in the time of possession battle this year by a 25/35 minute margin. This carries some added significance in that such an imbalance adds pressure to their already depleted defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s struggles in this area are well-documented, and a turnaround may not be forthcoming until after the bye week. The inconsistency of the entire field goal unit (only 3 for 7 to date) is particularly disturbing, and Air Force may be the wrong opponent to play until that gets fixed. The Falcons have blocked three kicks this season and a total of 14 since Calhoun took over in 2007.

Warzeka handles the kickoff returns for the Falcons and punts are fielded by Davis. Both return and coverage teams are very good statistically. Punter David Baska’s 47-yard average is not solely a function of the high altitude in Colorado Springs, as he launched a 65-yarder at Navy last week. Parker Herrington is the placekicker for field goals and PATs, and Erik Soderberg’s kickoffs have been returned for less than 14 yards each.

SUMMARY

The game shapes up as one that will light up the scoreboard. Both offenses are potent and the Air Force defense is vulnerable to Notre Dame’s power and balance. The wild card is whether the Falcons can keep the Irish defense off balance with cutbacks against the pursuit and a mix of passes that maintain the element of surprise. Notre Dame has proven it can defend conventional offenses quite effectively, but mobile quarterbacks and academy-style football have caused epic failures.

First down plays will be probative when the Falcons have the ball. Gains of 5-7 yards will keep Air Force in the game while second and long situations will be problematic. Notre Dame can also keep the score close with turnovers, a special teams breakdown or poor red zone execution, but that is paranoia talking, right?

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will Notre Dame show discipline in their pursuit of the Falcon ball carriers?

Can the Irish capitalize on scoring chances with touchdowns?

Which team will run for more total yards and yards per carry?

Will Jefferson be a 70% passer against the Irish defense?

Can Air Force do anything defensively to disrupt Rees and Notre Dame?

Will the Irish sort out their kicking game and overall special teams play?

What will Bob Diaco be saying on Sunday morning?

                a) I’m really proud of the great effort by our defense

                b) We struggled at times but were able to get the job done

                c) Would you like fries with that?

 PREDICTION

Calhoun is a very good coach and his team will be able to generate some points in this contest. It is doubtful, however, that Air Force can sustain its attack throughout four quarters against the bigger and stronger Irish. Self-inflicted wounds are the only obstacle for Notre Dame; otherwise this should be a comfortable but well-earned victory against a respected opponent.

NOTRE DAME 41 AIR FORCE 20