Following a week off for mid-semester break, Notre Dame enters a crucial stretch in its football campaign as the 5-1 Fighting Irish host arch rival USC (6-1) on Saturday evening. The Trojans have endured a rash of injuries to date, but Sam Darnold’s passing acumen has produced victories in all but one contest. Darnold is by far the best quarterback Notre Dame will face this season. He and USC’s dangerous skill position players will provide a severe test for the resurgent Irish defense. The game will be nationally televised by NBC beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time.

Clay Helton, who began as an offensive assistant at USC in 2010, is 22-8 in his third season as the head coach. During his brief tenure he has seven wins over AP Top 25 teams, including three Top 5 teams. The Irish are ranked 13th going into this week’s contest while USC is ranked 11th. Coach Brian Kelly, in his eighth season at Notre Dame, is 11-14 against the Top 25 and 0-2 versus the Top 5.

Although the records of these two teams are similar, the Trojans come into this showdown with a long and growing list of injuries while Notre Dame is quite healthy. USC’s defense has been shattered by the loss of starting nose tackle Josh Fatu, who suffered a concussion earlier this week in a car accident. Fellow lineman Rasheem Green is far from 100% and Porter Gustin, a stalwart outside linebacker and pass rusher, continues to be sidelined with bicep and toe ailments. The Trojans also lost Marlon Tuipulotu and Kenny Bigelow from their defensive line, so true freshmen are now being pressed into service.

The Irish report that quarterback Brandon Wimbush is at full speed after sitting out the win at North Carolina. The lone negative report from the team is that linebacker Greer Martini will not play due to a knee injury suffered in practice. Weather should not be a factor in Saturday’s game as mild temperatures are forecast with no rain in sight.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

Wimbush has not played since a mediocre performance against Miami of Ohio three weeks ago, and there is some consternation regarding his ability to keep USC off balance with a credible passing threat. The Trojans are sure to overload the box against Notre Dame’s vaunted rushing attack, especially now that several of their experienced and proven front seven defenders won’t be available. While the Irish should run the ball early and often, Wimbush needs to force USC to defend the entire field. He has been a full participant in practices during the break, and Irish fans should expect to see a higher completion percentage and better timing between Wimbush and his receivers.

Ends Christian Rector and Green will flank Fatu’s replacement in the middle, freshman Brandon Pili. The 3-4 alignment includes outside linebackers Uchenna Nwoso and whomever is tabbed to replace Gustin. This athletic group has recorded an impressive 22 sacks, so the Irish should strive to avoid third and long situations. Middle linebacker Cameron Smith is a junior with NFL level talent who is particularly stout against the run.

Notre Dame’s wide receivers, who have collectively underperformed to expectations this season, will battle a capable Trojan secondary. Safeties Marvell Tell and Chris Hawkins are hardened veterans, while cornerbacks Jack Jones and Iman Marshall are difficult to shake. Nickle back Ajene Harris, who stopped a two-point conversion last week to preserve the victory over Utah, rounds out the group. The Irish will need a stronger effort from Equanimeous St. Brown and a resurgent Kevin Stepherson to provide downfield threats against USC and keep its safeties from jamming the running lanes.

The Trojan defense has managed to survive mistakes resulting from excess aggression. USC has allowed 17 first downs on penalties this season, and Notre Dame’s offense has gained 20 first downs in this manner. Their defenders are typically willing to take chances, but are sometimes caught out of position.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Like nearly every USC quarterback before him, Darnold is blessed with an impressive cadre of weapons. Running back Ronald Jones is both a workhorse and a breakaway threat. He has eight touchdowns, including an 86-yarder, to his credit. While Jones is slightly hampered by a sore ankle, backup Stephen Carr will likely miss the game altogether. Jones remains quite dangerous, however, and the Irish would do well to punish him on every carry to the extent allowed.

While Darnold is not a running threat, he has excellent feet in the pocket and repeatedly extends plays by avoiding the rush to find open men downfield. The Trojans practice those broken plays and their success in turning potential losses into long gains is no fluke. Deontay Burnett is the primary target in these circumstances, and the junior speedster is far and away the team’s leading receiver. Stephen Mitchell and Tyler Vaughns have made great strides since the season started and are legitimate threats. Tight ends Tyler Petite and Josh Falo are also capable pass receivers that are especially dangerous near the goal line.

Everything works well for USC’s offense when the line is healthy and functioning as was anticipated prior to the start of the season, when the team was ranked in the top five. Senior Viane Talamaivao was expected to anchor the group at right guard, but he went down a few weeks ago and is lost for the year. A freshman, Andrew Vorhees, has taken over that spot. Right tackle Chuma Edoga is coming back from an injury but will start, and versatile left tackle Toa Lobendahn hopes to be ready as well. Overall, the Trojan line may be vulnerable to a strong rush with multiple stunts and late blitzes.

. USC has been very successful on third down this season and has recorded numerous long scoring drives, so field position is not necessarily an issue for Darnold. The Irish need to make it a priority to get off the field , and the more successful party in this battle will likely be victorious. Turnovers and drive-killing penalties have hampered the Trojans more than Notre Dame this year, so the Irish defense needs to be in attack mode. Darnold’s ratio of 15 touchdowns to nine interceptions is a bit worse that the USC staff would prefer, and it indicates the amount of pressure on him to produce points to cover for a defense battered and depleted by injury.

SPECIAL TEAMS

USC unexpectedly had to fill a hole in the kicking game this year, but freshman walk-on Chase McGrath has exceeded expectations. He has converted eight of nine field goal tries and has not flinched with the game on the line. Punter Reid Budrovich has been solid to date. The Trojan return teams have wreaked havoc with the Irish over the years, but the numbers this season are unremarkable. Velus Jones averages 27 yards on kickoff returns while Harris returns punts at 4.5 yards per attempt. The cover teams have allowed more yards per return that they have gained, which is surprising due to the overall team speed and the number of quality athletes.

Notre Dame’s kicking and punting specialists have been equally reliable. The cover teams have been shaky only once or twice, but the return game is statistically well below average. It’s important for the Irish this week to gain ground on special teams rather than continue the trend of losing a chunk of field position on every exchange.

SUMMARY

The Irish should refrain from horizontal runs and wide screen passes against the speedy USC defense. Straight ahead power with some misdirection in the running game and downfield strikes through the air to with tight ends as well as receivers will get the job done. Quick slants and flat passes will play right into the hands of the Trojans. Defensively, Notre Dame’s main focus is to pressure Darnold, who has destroyed opponents when he has time to locate Burnett and company, but has made numerous mistakes when his protection breaks down. While defending the run, the Irish need to fill the gaps and tackle well to ensure Jones does not turn a five yard gain into 50.

USC will defend the run and take the chance that Wimbush is unreliable through the air. If the Irish passing game can be established early, there is no way the Trojans can defend Wimbush’s dual threat capability while also containing the power running of Josh Adams and the other talented backs. A strong start is vital for Notre Dame to be able to play the type of game that best fits with its strengths and personnel. If the Trojans break out to an early two score advantage, the Irish may be forced out of their comfort zone and into mistakes.

Here are a few questions that will have a bearing on the outcome:

Will the Irish be able to run downhill against the depleted USC front seven?

Which special teams will make plays that alter field position?

Can Notre Dame pressure Darnold into negative plays and turnovers?

Which team will win the battle of third down conversions?

Can the Notre Dame receivers emerge from the doldrums to make significant contributions?

Will the Irish secondary pass its first major test?

Will there be an OJ sighting on the Trojan sideline?

PREDICTION

The Trojans have the weapons to score enough points to make this a shootout, and they have demonstrated the ability to prevail in the final minutes of such contests. The variables are Notre Dame’s ability to prevent the 50-yard play, disrupt Darnold in the pocket, and the extent to which Wimbush is composed and accurate with his passes. USC’s current state of poor health and Notre Dame’s freshness after a bye week should enable enough positive plays for the Irish to prevail.

NOTRE DAME 34 USC 27