Notre Dame (6-2) hosts the Naval Academy (7-1) on Saturday in the next chapter of the historic rivalry between these institutions. Navy suffered its first loss last week but retains hope of winning the American Conference title. The Fighting Irish have won six straight games and are ranked tenth in this week’s initial playoff rankings. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 83-13 with one tie. NBC will televise this game starting at 7:30 PM Eastern time.
Navy’s Head Coach Brian Newberry is in his third season at the Academy. He has a 22-11 mark overall but has gone 17-4 since a challenging first season. This year’s team has an abundance of senior leaders including quarterback Blake Horvath, the nation’s fifth leading rusher. Horvath has 926 net yards, which is 32 yards more than Jeremiyah Love. Defensively, Navy has the 81st ranked defense among power programs while Notre Dame is 52nd. When asked what it would take to slow down the potent Irish offense, Newberry responded as follows:
“They’ve got, similar to North Texas, a lot of great team speed. They got some size out of wideout, quarterback’s a good player. You watch the game they had last week and you got behind their DBs several times. They can run. So, we’ve got to do a great job against the run, obviously that’s where it starts and if you can do that right and you can keep things in front of you and make them earn everything that they get, not give up the big X plays in the pass game and that’s really the only way you’re going to have a shot against these guys.”
Conversely, Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman acknowledged the difficulty of preparing for and defending Navy’s unconventional offense. ““Their offense is probably even more challenging this year than it was last year. A lot more gun stuff and they still have the traditional triple-option attack,” he said. “I think their quarterback, Horvath, is a special player and he makes the whole thing go. He’s special in the run game and the pass game. I have a lot of respect for him.”
Notre Dame continues to play without three starting offensive linemen. Center Ashton Craig, guard Billy Schrauth, and guard Charles Jagusah remain out with no definitive return dates. Cornerback Christian Gray and wideout Jaden Greathouse will not play in this contest. Also, kicker Noah Burnette’s is not yet at full strength. Freshman Eric Schmidt won the kicking competition this week in practice and will start.
Navy reports tight ends Cody Howard and Jake Norris as questionable. Slot back Brandon Chatman and linebacker Luke Pirris are starters who are reportedly nursing undisclosed ailments. Their status is currently uncertain. As of now, both are expected to play.
Notre Dame’s Offense vs. Navy’s Defense
Previous opponents have tried to slow down the Irish running game and Navy will be no exception. That strategy should not deter Notre Dame from taking the physical battle right to the Midshipmen. Within Navy’s 3-4-4 alignment, the average weight of the four linebackers and four defensive backs is 202 pounds.
Up front, nose guard Landon Robinson and tackle Griffen Willis are talented playmakers. They have made numerous stops behind the line and can pressure the quarterback. If the Irish interior blockers can handle them, Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price should be off to the races. These matchups in the trenches will be critical to Notre Dame’s success.
Pirris and MarcAnthony Parker are the most impactful of the four linebackers. They lead the team in tackles by a wide margin. Expect Navy to play their linebackers up close and keep their safeties back to guard against big plays. This will open the middle of the field for CJ Carr and the Irish intermediate passing game.
Safety Giuseppe Sessi and cornerback Ira Oniha lead Navy’s secondary. Sessi is a sure tackler while Oniha is the team’s best cover man. Notre Dame’s skill players have the size and speed to win against this group. That task will be easier if the defense must first respect the run.
The Irish could be successful if they run misdirection and counter plays. Unfortunately, we have not seen many of those plays this season. Navy will try to create havoc on early downs by sending their linebackers into the run gaps. Negative yardage plays are their best chance to force Notre Dame to punt. The Irish must make the Midshipmen pay when they gamble with blitzes. They can do this by using Navy’s aggressiveness against them. There is no need to throw deep passes all evening, though. Grinding out first downs and finishing drives will work out fine.
Navy’s Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense
Newberry still utilizes the traditional option scheme but has added other elements. Horvath and his veteran accomplices enable the offense to be less predictable. Navy has averaged 14 passes per game this year and Horvath’s completion rate is 64%. The Middies now add 150 yards per game through the air to over 300 on the ground. This versatility makes them very difficult to stop.
Navy’s starting backfield boasts four seniors who have come through countless football wars together. Horvath is the leading rusher and offensive catalyst, but slot back Eli Heidenreich is their secret weapon. Heidenreich typically lines up as a slot receiver. He leads the team with 31 catches for 575 yards and four touchdowns. As a ball carrier, Heidenreich runs jet sweeps and pitchouts to challenge the edges of the defense.
Chatman is the other slot back or “Snipe” in this offense. His rushing numbers are equivalent to Heidenreich, but Chatman is targeted less frequently in the passing game. Alex Tecza, a traditional Navy fullback, completes this potent backfield. His 523 net rushing yards are second on the team to Horvath. Tecza has lost only four yards in his 90 attempts this season.
The Midshipmen utilize only one split end and one tight end on the majority of their plays. Wideout Nathan Kent has just four receptions this season while Howard also has four from his tight end position.
Left guard Ben Purvis is the only senior on the offensive line. Freshman Malcolm Johnson starts at right tackle, so this will be an area to watch. Left tackle Sean Crowley is a sophomore. Despite their relative youth, the 300+ rush yards per game speaks to their capabilities. They have also surrendered only three sacks this season to date.
Navy will attempt to isolate Irish defenders who have not have prior experience in defending their unique scheme. This is especially relevant in the secondary, where Tae Johnson, Mark Zachary, Dallas Golden, and DeVonta Smith are working.
Special Teams
Schmidt will handle the kicking chores despite not having made a field goal in his brief college career. I expect Freeman to go for it on fourth down more often than not. An exception may be a potential field goal that is not much longer than an extra point. If we see punter James Rendell more than once in this game, it will be a bad sign. On the other hand, Price may get a chance or two to return kicks. That would be an advantage for Notre Dame.
Navy kicker Nathan Kirkwood has converted six of seven field goals this season. His longest is 48 yards while his lone miss came from 50 yards. Punter Jacob Carlson averages 45 yards on only 16 attempts. Navy has elected to go for it on fourth down a total of 18 times this season.
Heidenreich and Chatman are the punt returners while backup slot man Isaiah Bryant returns kickoffs.
Summary
Navy suffered its first loss last week but still rushed for 320 yards. North Texas forced turnovers, penalties, and other mistakes in key moments by applying pressure. Notre Dame can force a similar outcome if they are the aggressors. If Chris Ash opts for a passive read and react defensive game plan, it will likely backfire. The Irish attacked Horvath last season and were successful. They have superior talent and should not be afraid to do this again on Saturday.
Defensively, Navy will strive to prevent big plays to force the Irish to march methodically down the field. If the Middies win just once on third or fourth down, they can keep Notre Dame from scoring touchdowns. A questionable kicking game and the Irish season-long ineffectiveness in the red zone play to Navy’s advantage.
Notre Dame is unquestionably the more talented team but Navy will give its usual fearless effort. The key for the Irish is discipline on defense. The ends must hold the edge and turn Navy’s speedy backs to the inside. The back seven must stay in the proper lane and make sure tackles.
Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:
- Which team will be more successful on third or fourth down?
- Will Carr be patient and take the easy completions over riskier throws?
- Can Notre Dame’s defense create negative plays?
- Which team will win the turnover margin?
- Can the Irish special teams rebound from last week’s miserable outing?
- Will Mike Denbrock utilize an effective power running game to wear down Navy?
- Which offense will be more efficient in the red zone?
- Can Navy make meaningful plays through the air against the Irish defense?
Prediction
Notre Dame’s young players on defense must play well for this game to become a comfortable win. On offense, the Irish must resist the temptation to be pass-heavy. The surest path to victory is for Notre Dame to use its size and elite tailbacks to maximum advantage. An area that concerns me is third and fourth down efficiency. Navy converts 54% of its third downs and is 67% on fourth down. Notre Dame is only 44% and 40%, respectively in these categories. The Irish must be the better team on these downs this week. While I have additional concerns regarding the tendencies of Denbrock and Ash, I have confidence that Coach Freeman will have his team prepared.
NOTRE DAME 35 NAVY 17
This is a reprint of John’s original preview article lost in a site technical issue