Notre Dame (1-2) goes on the road this weekend to play the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2). This is the first ever visit to Fayetteville for the Fighting Irish, who will host the Hogs in 2028. Both teams feature a balanced and  potent offense with impressive statistics to show for it. Defensive breakdowns have been the overriding story in each of their four combined losses. Saturday’s game will be nationally televised on ABC beginning at 12:00 Noon Eastern time.

Coaches from both teams have come under fire due to a failure to meet expectations. At Notre Dame, Defensive Coordinator Chris Ash has been the target of considerable heat. His unit allowed game-winning drives in the first two games and struggled in the opening half last week.

Several beat reporters attributed a stronger second half performance against Purdue to an intervention by Hed Coach Marcus Freeman. Truthfully, there is no single reason for the Irish defensive woes. Schematic issues, injuries, freshmen learning on the job, and poor tackling have all played a part. Failure to pressure the quarterback is probably at the top of this list.

In Fayetteville, it is no secret that Head Coach Sam Pittman’s seat is extremely warm. Now in his sixth season, Pittman has lost ten of his last 12 one-score games and the natives are getting restless. The manner in which they have lost is also problematic. Fundamental breakdowns and numerous self-inflicted wounds are not the hallmark of a well-coached team.

Rumors are circulating that Offensive Coordinator Bobby Petrino has privately lobbied boosters for Pittman’s job if he is fired. Petrino previously held the top job at Arkansas from 2008-11. He was fired in April 2012 for having an inappropriate relationship with a young female colleague. This week, he may be auditioning for his old job.

None of the foregoing should alter either team’s strategy for Saturday’s contest, although Pittman desperately needs a noteworthy victory. Hosting Notre Dame presents Pittman with a perfect opportunity to circle the wagons and fire up his team.

On the injury front, the Irish will again be without kicker Noah Burnette. Cornerback Leonard Moore and nickel back DeVonta Smith remain questionable and will become game time decisions. We have learned that guard Charles Jagusah suffered a setback in his recovery from a broken humerus. He may miss the entire regular season. Arkansas has reported no significant injuries among its starters or major contributors.  

Notre Dame’s Offense vs. Arkansas’ Defense

Offensive Coordinator Mike Denbrock unleashed the running game last week and is almost certain to repeat that plan. Arkansas has been vulnerable the run against even mediocre teams. If they load up to slow down Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, the play-action pass is available. CJ Carr hit a couple of bombs last week and would love to have similar opportunities on Saturday. It is also vital that Notre Dame dominates time of possession to keep the ball away from the Hogs.

Love and Price accounted for over 200 yards rushing last week and should achieve that number again. Irish wide receivers have done a better job of downfield blocking recently. Such efforts can turn a five-yard run into a big chunk play. The Arkansas front four has not played particularly well with the exception of sack leader Quincy Rhodes. Notre Dame should win the line of scrimmage more often than not in this matchup.

Linebackers Xavian Sorey and Stephen Dix lead the team in tackles. They can be exceptional playmakers but often find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. Cornerbacks Julian Neal and Kani Walker lead a veteran secondary. Both are 6’2”. Missed tackles and blown assignments have been an issue throughout this quintet.

Irish tight end Ty Washington will return to his prior home field this week. We can expect Denbrock to find a way to give him an opportunity to catch the ball. This could happen in the red zone when Notre Dame shows a running formation with two tight ends. Otherwise, Carr should spread the ball around to keep the Hogs guessing throughout the day.

Arkansas’ Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense

The Irish have played against some potent offenses this season but Arkansas may be the scariest. Quarterback Taylen Green has a 65% completion rate and is the team’s leading rusher. He stands at 6’6” and weighs 235 pounds. Arkansas’ most impressive statistic regarding this offense is the number of explosive plays. Green averages a phenomenal 15 yards per completion. The Hogs produce 6.6 rush yards per carry to yield 552 total yards per game. Green personally accounts for 300 yards passing and 90 yards rushing.

Despite a number of untimely errors including penalties and turnovers, the Hogs have scored 44 points per contest. Their offensive line has improved since enduring a disastrous 2024. Currently, they have allowed only three sacks. Tackle Corey Robinson and guard Fernando Carmona anchor a strong left side, while the right and center are more vulnerable.

Green has enjoyed time to throw and room to scramble. Unless the Irish front can produce havoc plays, the Hogs will score their share of points. Arkansas has scored 16 times in 17 trips to the red zone. All 16 successes have been touchdowns.

Tailbacks Mike Washington and Braylen Russell form a lightning and thunder combination for the Hogs. Washington is a capable receiver as well. Wideout O’Mega Blake is the team’s leading receiver by a wide margin. There is plenty of talent behind him, however, providing Green with multiple targets. Jalen Brown, CJ Brown, Raylen Sharpe, and tight end Jaden Platt have each contributed multiple big plays.

Special Teams

Burnette’s absence means that freshman Erik Schmidt will do the place kicking. He was adequate last week but I would be concerned if the Irish need a field goal to win. Punter James Rendell can help the team most this week by not being needed. In the return game, Price’s 100-yard return last week effectively ended all hope for Purdue. Notre Dame could use another impact play this week to tip the scales of this shootout in their favor.

Hogs kicker Scott Starzyk made two of four field goals this year. All have come from 40+ yards since Arkansas almost always scores a touchdown in the red zone. His longest success is from 53 yards. Senior punter Devin Bale has a powerful leg and a 48-yard average. Like Rendell, he has been lightly used this season to date. Arkansas has had very few kickoff or punt returns to date with unremarkable results. Their kickoff coverage appears to be a weak spot.

Summary

Notre Dame must score touchdowns at every opportunity. Field goals will prove to be inadequate. The winning team will have the most explosive plays and the fewest drive-killing mistakes. Special teams also heavily favor Notre Dame and the Irish must dominate this phase of the action. Defensively, keeping Green in the pocket and pressuring him there is the primary objective. He is certain to make few spectacular plays but the Irish must limit the damage.

Turnovers and field position are critical factors in this contest. Both offenses will have success, so the team whose mistakes derail its own drives will fall behind. Although the Irish had a strong defensive second half against Purdue, the Hogs’ offense is far superior. Notre Dame and Ash are still a long way from getting themselves out of the woods. The Irish pass rushers must win a few more one-on-one battles than in previous weeks.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will Notre Dame keep Green well below his season run and pass averages?
• Can the Irish stop Arkansas in the red zone?
• Which team will run the ball and control the clock?
• Will the Irish special teams make a positive difference?
• Can Notre Dame’s secondary refuse to surrender explosive plays?
• Will Carr maintain his poise and avoid the big interception?
• Can Notre Dame dominate the middle eight minutes of the game?
• Will the Irish win the battles in the trenches?

Prediction

Notre Dame will score its share of points but the path to victory is attacking and beating the Hogs offensive line. Success in this endeavor will serve to keep Green somewhat contained. Arkansas and Petrino will not be silenced, though. The Irish defense must achieve a combination of turnovers and red zone stops to avoid another loss. Moore and Smith will certainly help the visitors if they can play. If not, the game could become a shootout where the team who has the final possession prevails.

In the end, the Irish running game and Arkansas’ penchant for critical mistakes in close games will be decisive.

NOTRE DAME 48  ARKANSAS 38

This is a reprint of John’s original prediction article that was lost in a site crash